Obama vs McCain: Whom do you vote for?

Who would you choose among the wisest men or between two lesser evil?

The war weary Republican as bannered by John McCain or the tax heavy Democrat represented by Barack Obama?

What’s the big deal in this coming November 2008 U.S election? Well it does and should concern you at all. Because you know why it doesn’t matter when the U.S as the economist would always say when the U.S sneezes, the world catches cold. When the dollar falls or increase, the remittances of our true national heroes would be severely affected.

Why should you trust America? The U.S with it self-proclaimed big brother attitude in its foreign policy agendas. Does it surprise you too that she claims also the world self-proclaimed policeman? It is just right and fair to occupy and demonize the territorial integrity of Iraq or invade Grenada, but for Russia to occupy Georgia it is illegal.

Big Power says every nation should democratize by way of the ballot but can also be done by the bullet thru CIA inspired coup attempt. Do not tell me we are still in the era of cold war period. It is just right and fair to install anybody but Chavez in Venezuela or install back Aristide in Haiti. This double standard principle of U.S is summed up in just 3 letters. It is OIL. Remember the Carter doctrine?

“An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force”.

Well it is only mean that anybody that blocks Uncle Sam way shall be dealt severely. That’s actually the definition of the doctrine. Reagan summed it up as the U.S will always protect the vital sea way (or choke points) of oil transport from Persian Gulf to the U.S. No matter whatever will be the cost and whatever the options. It is just right to wage war in the Middle East even spending billions just to show and test U.S. military ware. The Saudi or Kuwaiti will buy them after all in the next few years. Who will benefit ultimately from the war? It is America stupid.

But where did the oil economy started after all.

Yes oil production started in China then to Mideast but the boom started in the U.S. No wonder why Chevron is one of the biggest companies in the world. McCain says the U.S. it is high time now for Uncle Sam to dig their backyard, Obama says no. It is estimated that oil in the Mideast will last up to 2030. It is also estimated that a fourth of the world oil reserves can be found where? In Alaska, a U.S territory. So what happen when the Saudi ran out of oil or their supply is depleted? Who will emerge then the winner? It is America. No wonder.

Bill Clinton defeated George Bush due to his stupidity in Iraq. His number one agenda is foreign policy not the economy. What the father failed to do, George W. has succeeded to. It is removing Saddam. Despite the MBA Harvard educated George W. the U.S economy had been in the downturn or almost in recession. The money that should finance American economy went to Iraq. No wonder the U.S is just printing the dollar to finance its stay in Iraq and should you account their reserves at Fort Knox I doubt if it still there. Why the U.S is still interested in Iraq despite a thousand of troops been killed? American companies will be responsible in managing oil production; all the contracts even power distribution to consultancy. . Remember why Bush loses he break his promise on read my lips no more taxes. But he raised the taxes because the money be spent domestically went to Iraq. But after Iraq war how many billions of arm contracts have been generated by the U.S. Why America goes to war like they did in Vietnam? To sell their arms ware.

What will America earn from this sacrifice? Billions of contracts. It is OIL. OIL STAKE.

Who will win in this coming November U.S election?

The Issues

Things are not the same anymore not just like 1992. When Clinton won, Americans made a choice then between economy and Iraq. The choice now is between terrorism and economy. After Sept 11, Uncle Sam has redefined the word security into two words. Political and economic security. Yes, I have a job but what about my security. Am I safe when I am riding the Amtrak or UnitedAir.

Focus on the candidates.

Barack Obama. Little is known about Obama. He became known during Democratic national Convention in 2004 when he delivered the keynote speech. Remember Ronald Reagan became well known also among Republicans when he delivered a keynote “Time of Choosing” speech during 1964 RNC. Just like JFK, he can rouse you from sleep, noting his ability to deliver a speech effectively. He defeated the popular Hillary Clinton in the primary.

Strength: effective speaker, popular among young voters

Weaknesses: Inexperience in foreign policy, question about his religious belief, being black.

Principles: He voted against Iraq invasion. In favor of U.S. withdrawing from Iraq.

John McCain. A traditional politician, a former Vietnam POW. He is known by reputation as independent voter. Means he will vote not along party lines but by political beliefs. He was a the chair of Senate Commerce Committee, so funds in this coming election will not be a problem though he will choose to enroll in the state sponsored financing.

Strength: better than Obama in foreign policy though he supported Bush on Iraq.

Weaknesses: a stigma on the Keating five (a scandal of political contribution in 1980s just like what Mark Jimenez did), a supporter in Iraq invasion, age and unusual temper (the oldest to seek presidential nomination and would be the oldest president if elected).

Principles: Independent minded. He favors gradual withdrawal.

Critical Issues

Age and Color. Age I believe will not be a disadvantage for McCain. Reagan had Alzheimers symptoms already though not severe when he occupied the White house. Color is a big issue for Obama including his religious beliefs. The post Sept 11 syndrome radicalized Americans to think Islam as an evil religion. Remember the prophecy of Nostradamus (the anti-Christ will be a man wearing a turban supported by the French). Though a non- issue when JFK ran for being a Roman Catholic in a Protestant majority. The last election won by Bush versus John Kerry( despite being a Catholic is a pro-choice) is driven somewhat by conservative Christians. Being black is a big disadvantage for Obama, though it never became a big issue during the primary with Hillary. Blacks are the tambays in America. They eat and sleep from state security and who are paying them to become tambays. It is the white working majority. So the white will never support a black candidate. 21% of Clinton supporters are said to be voting for John McCain.

Will popularity become a factor?

Yes, JFK was elected at the young age of 43. Barack will be 47 when he will sit office. Popularism is popularism period. Elections in the U.S are many times carried out by Independents. Independents a third of total American voters choose to make a choice only after a presidential debate. Ross Perot even manages to get a slice of the voter’s pie in 1992 from Bush and Clinton because of his string showing in the debate. Al Gore almost defeated Bush winning the popular vote because of his charm showing in the debate. Whether Obama will carry out his popularity toward the November 20, 2008 election will depend on his performance of this debate. Obama should not be soft in his attack, but if Obama attacks remember the Rezko scandal? Chances that when you are too personal, Americans are more inclined to vote for the challenger.

Will a VP choice become a factor?

A little or none at all. Geraldine Ferraro did not carry Walter Mondale (women’s vote) in 1984. The young John Edwards did not carry John Kerry in 2004.

Economy or Security?

When Americans will make a choice comes November 20. They will be making a hard decision that spells a difference throughout the whole world. It affects us, not because of the mighty dollar that our new heroes, the OFW that are contributing to the economy. Whatever will be the policy of the next American President toward the Mideast will surely affect oil prices. The domino effect will surely affect the purchasing power of the Peso. Economist s says “when America sneezes, the world catches cold”. Oil prices are increasing since 2003. America somewhat should share some of the blame. They invaded Iraq just because of ulterior motive. In the guise of removing Saddam but to dominate oil production. Overall it is not the supply and demand that China who once exports oil during the time of President Marcos in the 70’s is now the 2^nd biggest major oil importer. It started in 2003 when U.S devalue the dollar for Ford and GM to export their SUV to become competitive with Toyota and Honda. Others are the greedy financial speculators like the Hungarian-born George Soros and of course the Saudis who because of their billions finances these speculators who hedge the price of oil to increase. And the American companies instead of investing their money in oil production invested their much needed investment on corn oil or biodiesel instead of digging new wells to addressed the demand. And who owns the big companies that financing the U.S elections either you are a democrat or a republican. The Jews. No wonder, America will not change its policy toward Israel. That’s why we have now a problem of demand and supply situation. It is only now that the Saudis are digging some of their wells which they had never plan years ago.

The hard choice will be job (work) or security. It will be choice surely spelled by independents. Would you choose a war freak Republican that is only protecting big business like Chevron (oil), Boeing (fighter planes) or a Democrat who is not interested in securing America from terrorist attacks? Should Bill Clinton have been sincere in killing Bin Laden before there could never be 9/11? I guess I should choose the better given the scenario, I should have food for my stomach never mind the bomb attacks. For the American I guess if he can sleep well even he has food for the night. That will be a question in the ballot comes November 20 2008. So it will be a choice of tax grinding Democrat (they will increase taxes) or a tax (no taxes just spend) spending Republican. What will happen if Obama wins? American economy will grow, so did the world economy and our Philippine exports will increase but oil prices will also increase if U.S withdraws from Iraq because of distracted supply that could be turning Iraq into turmoil of civil war if the U.S withdraws. If John McCain wins, oil prices will recede a little and but will be a continuance of Bush policy toward the Mideast. There could be reemergence of Cold War mentality against Russia who is bent in protecting too his interest in Ukraine and Georgia in protecting his oil pipeline. If John McCain wins , America faces another battle front which is not good for the American economy. And who wins if McCain wins? It is China the sleeping giant. While America is spending over the war in Iraq, China is building up its foreign reserves, building roads, dam and oil fields in Africa. Getting rich while neighbor America is busy abroad. China is investing a lot in Africa looking forward of coal and other mineral sources to finance her economy and will be a great power in the future.

American election will be there as a curse for us in the whole world. It is a pill hard to swallow but what nation now that can withstand U.S hegemony and power. Anything that U.S. does have an impact in our lives.

Among the two lesser evil.

My Fearless Forecast.

It is John McCain. I believe the question should be addressed as who will be the better commander in chief.