WHY CHINA IS INTERESTED IN SPRATLYS?
Because of strategic importance of Spratlys and being the shortest route between the Pacific and Indian Oceans, it has some of the world's busiest shipping lanes. More than half the globe's oil tanker traffic passes through it. Most shipping is of raw materials, such as crude oil from the Gulf to East Asian countries. The sea holds valuable fishing grounds, and as-yet largely unexploited oil and natural gas fields. China arbitrary claims to the whole of South China Sea which often referred to as “9 dash line or 1st island chain” did not only extend to the area of Taiwan, Ryukyus Island but also to another “2nd island chain” that extends from Japan to Guam ( South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean).
WHY THE PHILIPPINES IS IMPORTANT TO THE U.S?
While the Philippines is very important “chokepoint” to the U.S that provided logistic support during the 1950’s Korean War, 70’s Vietnam War and Persian Gulf War in 1991. Following the 1986 anti-bases Constitution, the US managed to circumvent in employing military presence in the Philippines through an executive agreement or the VFA. As an imperial ally of the US as a result of conquest in the early 1900’s as a price for the US it is our temporal duty to provide them access to any part of our territory even our Constitution forbids the docking of any nuclear armed ship within our territory. But who is the Philippines anyway to ask Uncle Sam and prevent a US nuclear armed submarine to visit Subic Bay. When it comes to US troops, we also maintain a “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy and silently every time that the US goes to war we are involved indirectly as an off-base to any US operations be it in Asia or in the Persian Gulf.
Maybe because of VFA that China may have second thoughts of attacking us in the Spratlys. If ever there is a full blown war between China and the U.S. Consider this scenario;
In case of the event of nuclear war between U.S and China, China will have no match with the U.S when it comes to military technology and number of nuclear warheads. But, It would be unlikely that China and U.S will use nuclear arms in case of conflict but only as a last resort. But in the event of armed invasion, we will be caught in the crossfire between the 2 nations predictably strategically important as a base similar to the island hopping done by the Japanese in WW II. We have no choice but to take side with the U.S. since we have the Mutual Defense Treaty of 1951.
Should the U.S go to war with China over the Spratlys?
The answer is a guessing game.
The scenario now is very different compared to the Cold War period. US ships are now unwelcome in Okinawa but they are most welcome in Vietnam. India and the US are gearing up for stronger military ties and Pakistan is now looking for China to buy arms pushing away from the U.S.
The answer can be a YES or a NO!
Yes, because the U.S. maintains that its main security concern in the area is keeping open the sea routes that are vital for commercial shipping and warships.
They call it "Chokepoints".
The Spratly Island is considered to be part of “CHOKEPOINTS” or critical sea lanes, a term coined by Admiral Mike Mohan in the 80’s. It refers to 7 important passageways vital to world trade and commerce that includes from the primary chokepoint Strait of Hormuz, the Panama and Suez Canal and the Malacca Strait that extends up to the Spratlys and it is facilitates a complex delivery system of oil to the oil dependent nations, which, if disrupted, could dramatically impair the global economy. A blockade for example will ultimately increase the price of oil that will have a negative impact on international trade and financial markets like the situation during the Iran-Iraq war in the 80’s when Iran mined the Strait of Hormuz to stop Iraq from its exporting its oil to finance the war. Spratly islands are hence very important strategically to Japan, Korea, Taiwan and even to China where 89% of its oil demands passes through the Strait of Malacca. It connects the South China Sea to the Pacific vital to shipping among Asian nations. A blockade will result to supply disruption and long circuitous route to deliver the much needed oil to these countries.
Other “chokepoints” include the Bosporus, the narrow strait which set off the Russo-Turkish war in 1870’s that transport Russian oil to the western world from the Black Sea toward the Mediterranean through Turkey. That is why part of the problem of Georgia when he declares to ally with NATO after the break- up of the Soviet Union and turn as independent state is being hostage by Russia because Russian oil pipeline from Caucasus runs through Georgian territory.
In event of closure to international maritime trade of the South China Sea. China is building now a naval base in Burma to avoid the chokepoint in the “Strait of Malacca” that would give a direct access to the Bay of Bengal and contain also India influence in Indian Ocean. She will possibly dig a pipeline in the future to pump the oil from the Bay of Bengal in Burma to China. This also disturbs India that along its backyard it will have a strategic implication in the Indian Ocean; this will allow China to interdict shipping at the three crucial chokepoints in the Indian Ocean – Bab el Mandeb, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Strait of Malacca.
BUT WILL THE U.S GO TO WAR WITH US IN CASE OF ARMED ATTACK AT PAG-ASA ISLAND?
NO THE U.S WILL NEVER GO TO WAR WITH US, because even though the U.S have a Mutual Defence Treaty with us that any attack to any of our territory, public vessels or aircraft in the Pacific by an external party just the same the U.S will only support us maybe with logistics but the treaty never speak of U.S troops fighting along with us in the side of South China Sea and the treaty speaks only in the side of the Pacific.
Plus It would be now difficult for the U.S to deploy an aircraft carrier in the South China Sea in case of conflict because China had already developed an anti-ship ballistic missile.
Consider the same scenario in World War II, when Gen MacArthur is urging Washington leaders regarding the attitude of Japan his calls fell in deaf ears. Historically, the U.S looks more to Europe than to her allies in the Pacific. The U.S can go to war to any country in the Middle East ( like invading Iraq or defending Saudi Arabia and Kuwait) which have oil and it is very unlikely to go to war again with the her ally, the Philippines over China with no interest at stake. We do not have anymore the exploited mineral resources that are very important and crucial to the U.S to build its arms and ships. We do not have the oil that America is willing to pay to fight for its survival.
TODAY, IF THE U.S WILL FIGHT CHINA, THE U.S. WILL BE AT THE LOSING END.
When the U.S sold a $6.4B arms like Black Hawks and Patriot missile to Taiwan, China cancelled all military exchanges and threatened sanctions with U.S defence companies and sold a $32B U.S securities. China owns $1159.8B as of May, 2011 of U.S securities or 26% of U.S public debt. The U.S is borrowing from China to finance its economy and using this money to build arms and technology against China. If the U.S will attempt to involve itself in case of war in the Spratlys, China can blackmail the U.S by dumping the U.S securities it holds in exchange with IMF gold and surely other countries will follow China in selling this US securities that will result to lowering the price US securities and the US dollar value that will be forcing the U.S to increase its interest rates to borrow from other sources. The U.S will not go to war with us in the Spratlys because it has no national interest at stake and the U.S economy will ultimately suffer because the U.S is financially dependent to China.
No comments:
Post a Comment